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The error bars are getting smaller on the Venus probe reentry! Now at 6:30 UTC on 10 May, +/- 4.1 hr sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2025/…

Not gonna fall on Saskatchewan!! ...Lots of other places it could still fall though.

A world map with the orbit of the Venus probe superimposed as a sine wave over the globe. It cross through parts of North and South America, as well as Europe and southern Asia, and Australia.

Kosmos 482 Descent Craft reentry forecasts [PERIODICALLY UPDATED]

classified military Space (spy satellites) and Missiles
sattrackcam.blogspot.com
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Howard Chu @ Symas
Howard Chu @ Symas
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I'll be out walking for Darkness Into Light around then. Should I keep an eye out, in Ireland? darknessintolight.ie/

Home

Join Pieta and Electric Ireland at sunrise on Sat 10th May for Darkness Into Light and give the gift of hope to those impacted by suicide and self-harm.
Darkness into Light
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

WTL
WTL
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Still some chances to land in Canada, though. Would make a great garage sale find! 🤣
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua
rag. Gustavino Bevilacqua
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At last Soviet spaceships had metric bolts, so if it falls near my workshop I have the wrenches to quickly recover a lot of useful parts 😄
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

arjankroonen
arjankroonen
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Eyeing The Netherlands… would be interesting if it lands near the Delft University where they do a lot of the tracking or at the ESA site in Noordwijk.
Questa voce è stata modificata (4 giorni fa)
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Floreana
Floreana
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Holy shit! One of those dots seems to be in the area where my mom lives. 😱
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Vincent 🌻🇪🇺
Vincent 🌻🇪🇺
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Being on 52 N isn’t good enough I see, hope the line widths are misleading🤞
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

noahm
noahm
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Huh. It’s passing right over my house. This will be interesting.
It also looks like it’ll pass right over Pakistan and India, which is not great considering the current geopolitical situation there.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

josh susser
josh susser
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so it could fall on SpaceX's Starbase launch site? one track seems to go right over it.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Jetse de Vries
Jetse de Vries
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So I join Mastodon and one of the first things I see is a map of where the Venus probe might crash, which includes The Netherlands.

What a welcome...

Yet thanks for the link.

in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

erica_sea55
erica_sea55
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oooh hope it falls near me in Australia (not on my house though 😂)
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Matthew Newell
Matthew Newell
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so if I am reading it right. The two middle lines - which I am guessing are around the middle of the time uncertainty (and more likely than the extremes) both cross over London and me! Not how I want to woken up tomorrow morning
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Dan Sugalski
Dan Sugalski
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It would be kinda appropriate if it fell on Moscow, but it looks like that orbit won't have that happen. Could maybe hit DC, I'm sure that'd be all sorts of exciting.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Miranda
Miranda
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Hmm. It could land in my backyard or flying right over. I don't like it.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

petabites
petabites
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I'll take 3:1 odds for it landing on what covers 75% of the Earth...
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

teledyn 𓂀
teledyn 𓂀
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@aprilfollies

aerospace.org/reentries/6073 now says 6:07 UTC +/- 3h — that's just short of Kiev. Perigee would be Kazakhstan if atmosphere wasn't in the way.

Sattrack says May 2025, 6:35 UTC ± 3.7 hr, so we all agree 😅

COSMOS 482 DESCENT CRAFT (ID 6073) | The Aerospace Corporation

Aerospace Corporation
@aprilfollies
Questa voce è stata modificata (4 giorni fa)
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Alyssa Voronin
Alyssa Voronin
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One of those tracks goes right over DC. It'd be poetic if it cratered the White House.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

JADe (he, him)
JADe (he, him)
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all your soviet time capsule bits belong to... Cuba ! Some poetic justice right there.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Nicole Rust
Nicole Rust
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What a fascinating blog post - I learned so much. Thanks for the link.
in reply to Prof. Sam Lawler

Markus G
Markus G
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@lisamelton ESA‘s latest updates:

blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/20…

Edit: "Status 10 May 09:56 CEST

As the descent craft was not spotted by radar over Germany at the expected 07:32 UTC / 09:32 CEST pass, it is most likely that the reentry has already occurred."

Reentry prediction Soviet-era Venera Venus lander (Cosmos-482 descent craft) – Rocket Science

News from the edge of gravity
blogs.esa.int
@Lisa Melton
Questa voce è stata modificata (3 giorni fa)
in reply to Markus G

Elena ``of Valhalla''
Elena ``of Valhalla''
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@Markus G @Lisa Melton @Prof. Sam Lawler and now it has not been seen at the expected time

blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/20…

(if I'm not mistaken, after a pass that was mostly over the oceans, right?)

@Prof. Sam Lawler @Lisa Melton @Markus G

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